The Denver Broncos NFL team went much farther this year than anyone expected, and they finally lost, one game short of the Super Bowl: the New England Patriots won last Sunday’s AFC Championship, played in Denver, 10 – 7.

Broncos were in that game only because they pulled out yet another come from behind win the week before, defeating the Buffalo Bills 33 – 30 in overtime.

Denver needed an otherworldly interception in overtime, a clutch drive late in the fourth quarter that was capped by a 26-yard touchdown pass from [quarterback Bo] Nix to Marvin Mims, Jr. and a 75-yard march in OT to advance. – ESPN, January 17, 2026

In 2007, Nassim Taleb wrote The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. It’s an intriguing book about “black swans,” defined as

…a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was.

I don’t know if Denver’s loss to New England can be characterized as a black swan event or not, but there were two unexpected contributing factors.

First, Denver quarterback Bo Nix broke his ankle in the win against Buffalo. He stayed on the field and finished the game, even did a post-game TV interview. It was shocking to all of us when we got the news about an hour after the game.

I was encouraged (a little) with Coach Sean Payton’s assessment of backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham. Coach didn’t say, “He’ll be ready.” He said, “Stidham IS ready.”

And Denver looked pretty good for much of the first half. Stidham threw a 52-yard pass, followed by an 8-yard touchdown pass, and Denver was up 7 – 0. Defense was holding New England. Two errors, however, one by the coach in not taking a field goal, and the quarterback not taking a sack resulting in a New England touchdown. Half-time score: 7 – 7.

New England opened with a long drive resulting in a field goal, and that was it. The second black swan came in the third quarter in the form of snow. Denver was NOT in the path of Winter Storm Fern that wreaked havoc across the country. Sunday was supposed to be merely cold with a slight chance of flurries. Well, we got about two inches of “flurries” and players could hardly stand up on the slippery field in the fourth quarter. Kickers missed field goals, and the Broncos had one barely tipped. That’s the ball outside the left post.

So in sports, just as in life, we have to expect, and deal with, the unexpected. Just because I’ve never seen a black swan doesn’t mean they don’t exist. (They live in Australia.)

Come now, you who say, “Today or tomorrow we will go into such and such a town and spend a year there and trade and make a profit”— yet you do not know what tomorrow will bring. …Instead you ought to say, “If the Lord wills, we will live and do this or that.” (James 4.13 – 15, ESV)

And for those of us Denver fans, the last stanza of “Casey at the Bat” seems appropriate:

Oh, somewhere in this favoured land the sun is shining bright,

The band is playing somewhere, and somewhere hearts are light;

And somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout,

But there is no joy in Mudville—mighty Casey has struck out.